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The listed score is the average score from the 10,000 runs of each first round game. The bracket represents the most likely outcome, where the team with the highest likelihood of advancing is moved on to the next round. Numbers in the table reflect the chance of a team making it to that round.

West/Round 1

Round One

1UCLA 78
16MVSU 56
8BYU 70
9Texas A&M 72
5Drake 75
12WKU 72
4UCONN 74
13San Diego 58
6Purdue 70
11Baylor 74
3Xavier 77
14Georgia 65
7WVU 75
10Arizona 72
2Duke 86
15Belmont 75

Field of 32

UCLA
Texas A&M
Drake
UCONN
Baylor
Xavier
WVU
Duke

Sweet 16

UCLA
UCONN
Xavier
Duke

Elite 8

UCLA
Xavier

Final 4

UCLA
Seed/Team Field of 32 Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Champ. Game Championship
4 UCONN
95.5%63.3%37.3%22.0%12.9%5.3%
1 UCLA
98.9%74.5%40.0%23.8%11.7%4.4%
3 Xavier
89.0%63.1%38.4%19.9%10.4%3.0%
2 Duke
84.4%47.5%26.5%12.7%5.5%2.3%
7 WVU
62.4%32.2%16.2%6.9%3.1%0.7%
5 Drake
62.3%23.9%11.1%4.6%1.5%0.6%
11 Baylor
63.6%24.3%9.5%3.1%0.9%0.6%
10 Arizona
37.6%16.7%5.8%2.6%1.2%0.3%
9 Texas A&M
56.7%16.5%4.9%1.5%0.4%0.1%
6 Purdue
36.4%9.6%2.4%0.8%0.2%0.0%
8 BYU
43.3%9.0%2.0%0.5%0.1%0.0%
12 WKU
37.7%12.2%4.7%1.6%0.6%0.0%
13 San Diego
4.5%0.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14 Georgia
11.0%3.0%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15 Belmont
15.6%3.6%0.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16 MVSU
1.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
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