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The listed score is the average score from the 10,000 runs of each first round game. The bracket represents the most likely outcome, where the team with the highest likelihood of advancing is moved on to the next round. Numbers in the table reflect the chance of a team making it to that round.

South/Round 1

Round One

1Memphis 79
16UT Arlington 62
8Miss St. 75
9Oregon 70
5Michigan St. 73
12Temple 68
4Pitt 73
13ORU 68
6Marquette 68
11Kentucky 62
3Stanford 76
14Cornell 70
7Miami 71
10Saint Mary's 74
2Texas 76
15Austin Peay 65

Field of 32

Memphis
Miss St.
Michigan St.
Pitt
Marquette
Stanford
Saint Mary's
Texas

Sweet 16

Memphis
Michigan St.
Marquette
Texas

Elite 8

Memphis
Texas

Final 4

Memphis
Seed/Team Field of 32 Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Champ. Game Championship
1 Memphis
94.7%69.9%52.3%39.7%25.5%11.1%
2 Texas
82.9%54.5%34.5%15.4%7.6%2.8%
5 Michigan St.
66.5%40.6%15.3%8.4%4.4%1.5%
8 Miss. St.
67.8%21.7%13.5%7.3%2.9%1.2%
3 Stanford
71.8%38.7%19.6%7.2%2.6%1.0%
6 Marquette
72.0%41.4%19.3%6.6%2.9%1.0%
10 Saint Mary's
65.2%31.1%16.1%6.3%2.8%0.5%
4 Pittsburgh
68.2%32.3%9.3%4.2%1.7%0.3%
7 Miami
34.8%10.6%4.4%1.2%0.2%0.0%
9 Oregon
32.2%7.8%3.1%1.1%0.1%0.0%
11 Kentucky
28.0%10.3%3.4%0.7%0.3%0.0%
12 Temple
33.5%16.1%3.9%1.0%0.3%0.0%
13 ORU
31.8%11.0%2.4%0.7%0.2%0.0%
14 Cornell
28.2%9.6%1.6%0.2%0.0%0.0%
15 Austin Peay
17.1%3.8%1.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16 UT Arlington
5.3%0.6%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%
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