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The bracket represents the most likely outcome, where the team with the highest likelihood of advancing is moved on to the next round. Numbers in the table reflect the chance of a team making it to that round.

Final Four/Round 1

Final Four

UNC
Kansas
Memphis
UCLA

Championship

Kansas
Memphis

Champion

Kansas
Seed/Team Field of 32 Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Champ. Game Championship
1 Kansas
93.3%84.3%74.4%59.5%42.0%31.6%
1 Memphis
94.7%69.9%52.3%39.7%25.5%11.1%
1 UNC
97.3%74.8%57.4%34.7%16.1%10.5%
2 Tennessee
92.9%69.1%38.2%20.4%10.8%6.2%
3 Louisville
88.1%69.9%43.1%23.8%10.0%5.4%
4 UCONN
95.5%63.3%37.3%22.0%12.9%5.3%
1 UCLA
98.9%74.5%40.0%23.8%11.7%4.4%
2 Georgetown
88.9%57.5%38.0%15.5%8.3%4.3%
3 Xavier
89.0%63.1%38.4%19.9%10.4%3.0%
2 Texas
82.9%54.5%34.5%15.4%7.6%2.8%
2 Duke
84.4%47.5%26.5%12.7%5.5%2.3%
5 Michigan St.
66.5%40.6%15.3%8.4%4.4%1.5%
5 Notre Dame
76.2%49.1%16.5%7.6%3.0%1.3%
3 Wisconsin
72.1%46.7%20.7%5.8%2.0%1.2%
8 Miss. St.
67.8%21.7%13.5%7.3%2.9%1.2%
10 Davidson
55.9%23.6%14.1%4.2%1.8%1.0%
3 Stanford
71.8%38.7%19.6%7.2%2.6%1.0%
6 Marquette
72.0%41.4%19.3%6.6%2.9%1.0%
7 Gonzaga
44.1%16.9%8.1%2.5%1.1%0.8%
7 WVU
62.4%32.2%16.2%6.9%3.1%0.7%
5 Drake
62.3%23.9%11.1%4.6%1.5%0.6%
11 Baylor
63.6%24.3%9.5%3.1%0.9%0.6%
10 Saint Mary's
65.2%31.1%16.1%6.3%2.8%0.5%
4 Pittsburgh
68.2%32.3%9.3%4.2%1.7%0.3%
10 Arizona
37.6%16.7%5.8%2.6%1.2%0.3%
6 Oklahoma
55.2%14.9%5.1%1.8%0.2%0.2%
8 Indiana
60.8%17.2%8.6%3.3%0.8%0.2%
5 Clemson
64.0%44.2%10.2%4.6%1.0%0.2%
4 Wash St.
72.2%36.7%12.7%3.8%0.8%0.1%
7 Butler
56.2%17.0%5.5%1.3%0.4%0.1%
9 Kent State
53.3%7.7%3.1%1.0%0.1%0.1%
9 Texas A&M
56.7%16.5%4.9%1.5%0.4%0.1%
9 Arkansas
39.2%7.7%2.9%0.7%0.2%0.0%
10 S. Alabama
43.8%12.4%3.2%0.9%0.0%0.0%
11 St. Joseph's
44.8%11.9%4.6%1.4%0.0%0.0%
12 GMU
23.8%8.3%1.0%0.1%0.1%0.0%
13 Winthrop
27.8%5.9%0.9%0.2%0.0%0.0%
14 Boise State
11.9%3.3%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15 American
7.1%1.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16 MSMU
2.7%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4 Vanderbilt
58.7%20.9%3.0%0.8%0.3%0.0%
6 USC
43.6%17.1%5.2%1.4%0.3%0.0%
8 UNLV
46.7%5.4%1.9%0.4%0.0%0.0%
11 Kansas St.
56.4%24.9%9.8%1.7%0.2%0.0%
12 Villanova
36.0%23.5%4.9%0.9%0.2%0.0%
13 Siena
41.3%11.4%1.1%0.2%0.0%0.0%
14 CS Fullerton
27.9%11.3%3.2%0.8%0.0%0.0%
15 UMBC
11.1%2.0%0.9%0.2%0.1%0.0%
16 Portland St.
6.7%2.6%1.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7 Miami
34.8%10.6%4.4%1.2%0.2%0.0%
9 Oregon
32.2%7.8%3.1%1.1%0.1%0.0%
11 Kentucky
28.0%10.3%3.4%0.7%0.3%0.0%
12 Temple
33.5%16.1%3.9%1.0%0.3%0.0%
13 ORU
31.8%11.0%2.4%0.7%0.2%0.0%
14 Cornell
28.2%9.6%1.6%0.2%0.0%0.0%
15 Austin Peay
17.1%3.8%1.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16 UT Arlington
5.3%0.6%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6 Purdue
36.4%9.6%2.4%0.8%0.2%0.0%
8 BYU
43.3%9.0%2.0%0.5%0.1%0.0%
12 WKU
37.7%12.2%4.7%1.6%0.6%0.0%
13 San Diego
4.5%0.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14 Georgia
11.0%3.0%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15 Belmont
15.6%3.6%0.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16 MVSU
1.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
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