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The listed score is the average score from the 10,000 runs of each first round game. The bracket represents the most likely outcome, where the team with the highest likelihood of advancing is moved on to the next round. Numbers in the table reflect the chance of a team making it to that round.

East/Round 1

Round One

1UNC 84
16MSMU 66
8Indiana 72
9Arkansas 69
5Notre Dame 76
12GMU 69
4Wash. St. 65
13Winthrop 60
6Oklahoma 70
11St. Joseph's 69
3Louisville 80
14Boise State 67
7Butler 71
10S. Alabama 69
2Tennessee 79
15American 64

Field of 32

UNC
Indiana
Notre Dame
Wash. St.
Oklahoma
Louisville
Butler
Tennessee

Sweet 16

UNC
Notre Dame
Louisville
Tennessee

Elite 8

UNC
Louisville

Final 4

UNC
Seed/Team Field of 32 Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Champ. Game Championship
1 UNC
97.3%74.8%57.4%34.7%16.1%10.5%
2 Tennessee
92.9%69.1%38.2%20.4%10.8%6.2%
3 Louisville
88.1%69.9%43.1%23.8%10.0%5.4%
5 Notre Dame
76.2%49.1%16.5%7.6%3.0%1.3%
6 Oklahoma
55.2%14.9%5.1%1.8%0.2%0.2%
8 Indiana
60.8%17.2%8.6%3.3%0.8%0.2%
4 Wash St.
72.2%36.7%12.7%3.8%0.8%0.1%
7 Butler
56.2%17.0%5.5%1.3%0.4%0.1%
9 Arkansas
39.2%7.7%2.9%0.7%0.2%0.0%
10 S. Alabama
43.8%12.4%3.2%0.9%0.0%0.0%
11 St. Joseph's
44.8%11.9%4.6%1.4%0.0%0.0%
12 GMU
23.8%8.3%1.0%0.1%0.1%0.0%
13 Winthrop
27.8%5.9%0.9%0.2%0.0%0.0%
14 Boise State
11.9%3.3%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15 American
7.1%1.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16 MSMU
2.7%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
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